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Expectation vs. Reality: In defense of Richard Jefferson

When the Spurs received Richard Jefferson from the Milwaukee Bucks for Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas, the trade was billed as one of the more lopsided of the post Gasol-to-the-Lakers era. Spurs fans rejoiced and fans of other teams cursed their front offices for not pulling off similar trades.

Needless to say, the trade was not the resounding success we thought it was going to be. The Jefferson the Spurs got the first year was nowhere near the offensive force most expected; he struggled with his shot and seemed passive and lost, while Pop couldn't really find a way to integrate him into the flow of the team.

After that disastrous first season, he opted out and was resigned for less money and more years in a move to avoid the luxury tax. While he seemed much more comfortable his second year wearing the Silver and Black (which prompted the coining of a new nickname RJ2.0) he still hadn't turned the Big 3 into the "Big 4" like the more optimistic of us were hoping for. Instead, he was just a role player. A good role player to be sure, but not the kind of high usage offensive weapon he had been in his first 8 years in the league. After a good regular season where he rebounded well and shot the ball at a career-high level from 3-point land, the postseason arrived and he, along with the rest of the team, struggled to make an impact in the playoffs. Which brings us to this season and to the point of this article:

Richard Jefferson is getting a lot of flack for his play this season and I'm here to tell you that he doesn't deserve it.

Star-divide

All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference. Glossary: eFG%: a stat that takes into account that a 3-point filed goal is worth more than a 2- point filed goal. TRB%: Percentage of available rebounds a player gets. Usage: percentage of possesions a players uses when on the floor.

First I need to say that when it comes to playing the BLAME RJ game, I've been as guilty of this as anyone else. But recently, I started reevaluating my position as this year's discussions raged (ahem) in the comment section. The most common criticism directed at Jefferson, and one that I've personally harped on, is regarding his passiveness on offense. But before I tackle the biggie, I want to deal with the secondary gripes regarding his rebounding and defense.

Jefferson's rebounding has taken a dip this season (6.7 TRB% this season, down from a 7.1 TRB% in 2011) but that's easily explained by Kawhi Leonard's elite rebounding numbers (12 TRB%). There's a limited amount of boards out there and other players are getting a large share of them; more importantly the Spurs still are a good defensive rebounding team and that's really all that matters. RJ was never a particularly good offensive rebounder to begin with but when you are parked behind the 3-point line on most plays, and have to sprint back on D to cover for a penetrating guard, it gets harder to get boards.

Similarly, defense was never RJ's calling card but it's clear that he tries. He is really inconsistent on that side, mixing good possessions with late close outs and missed rotations, but then again the Spurs knew that he was far from a Bruce Bowen clone. It's true that his defensive rating (105) is the worst of all the starters, but it's actually quite close to Tony Parker's (104).

In those areas, Jefferson seems to be who we thought he was when the Spurs traded for him. There was not a marked improvement but he didn't entirely disappoint either. The surprise for most of us fans was the way his offense transformed in his second season. So now that the other stuff is out of the way, let's get to that.

Unlike his other teams, the Spurs don't really call plays for Jefferson consistently. No ISOs, no post-ups, not even a 1-3 pick and roll in order to create a mismatch and let him exploit it in the post; he sometimes comes off a screen for a jumper or an alley oop but that's it. His usage percentage in the last two season has seen an almost 10% decline from his Milwaukee years. There's really no way for RJ to be more aggressive on offense other than going rogue and breaking up a play and taking over, which I guess he could do as long as he doesn't mind Pop yanking him so fast that there would be a Jefferson-shaped dust cloud on the court. If there's one thing Pop abide, it's when players are not doing what they are supposed to. He benches them and yells at them until he is red in the face. If Jefferson wasn't doing precisely what the offense calls for, he wouldn't be playing 30 minutes per game; which is the second most of any Spur, behind only Tony Parker.


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Via Bleacher Report

Since coming to the Spurs RJ has been asked to do two basic things on offense: 1 - park his butt in the corner, wait there for the kick-out and take the open shot, or 2 - go to the corner, throw an entry pass to the post and cut to the basket. And guess what? He has done just that -- and he's handled his first responsibility as well as anyone in the league.

Offensively, Pop relies on Jefferson to do one thing and one thing only: space the floor. If you are wondering if he is at least any good at that, the answer is a resounding yes. His 3pt% of .443 is good for 19th in the league and his eFG% of .555 good for 14th in the league. The guy has been the Spurs' most reliable shooter this season by far.

So why is a player that does exactly what he is asked to (and does it well) being called out by the fans? Because his name is Richard Jefferson and he's making over 9 million dollars this season.

We, and I'm including myself here, simply can't seem to forget about the All-Star we were supposed to get and instead we focus on the good role player we have. That's really the issue here: will we accept that the Richard Jefferson we have is nothing more than a good role player? We are letting our high expectation for him and his high salary stop us from appreciating what he actually provides. By comparing our Richard Jefferson with the Nets or Bucks versions, we are ignoring a fundamental fact: RJ transformed his game to fit the Spurs' style at Pop's request. He is no longer a machine gun; he is a sniper rifle.

Now if you get past the fact that his salary is the 4th highest in the team and disregard the the way the "old" RJ used to play, it becomes clear that the player I spent the last few paragraphs describing could be considered a solid starter; an elite shooter that is neutral at worst as a defender and rebounds reasonably well for his position. Some people have compared this version of RJ to Michael Finley and I don't think they are far off. Where the mistake lies is in thinking that's a bad thing. The Spurs won a championship with Mike Finley as their starting 3 and I don't think it's wrong for Pop to want to replicate what the Zombie brought to the table. We just have to remember that it's not RJ's fault that the front office overpaid for him.

5 recs  |  54 comments

Comments

Oh nice. I like it. Much better than the thing I had written up. Perfect. Rec’d!

Good article. This year I have seen RJ contributing positively to the team, night in and night out. His role is not as big as Tim&Tony’s, but he has been solid, shooting 3s, grabing important rebounds and playing some D.

Something that numbers do not always capture.

Like many I had expectations, but truthfully with Manu, Parker and Duncan as our go to scorers, he really never had a chance to excel to the level he’s use to. I actually believe he benefit from coming to the Spurs, becoming a three pointer specialist is only going to prolong his career and make him very valuable to any contending team.

While his contract might be higher than perhaps most of us wanted, he still contributes and that’s something many teams who gave large contracts would have loved.

the problem is rj makes really stupid mistakes at the end of games- his recent inbound pass with both feet over the line, the late close outs, the late rotations- if he was a smarter player it would help. still, a solid role guy. i think a lot of the frustration has come from his red hot starts the past two years. fans think (hope) that he has figured it all out and that we will see a brand new rj and then it goes away. also, he needs to play big in big games. that will end the blame game. a little.

Yes, he has. So have others. Without Manu and TJ, a lot of the pressure has shifted to guys who aren’t necessarily used to it, or have to over do it (in the case of Parker).

Or Green, who’s awesome, but had that potentially game winning (for the other team) when he gave up an “And One” a few weeks ago. Or we can jump back to 2006, which was a chance at a lost championship…

very true but i wish you wouldn’t have brought that up. i just puked in my mouth a little.

Well said. I tend to have a harder time looking past the money than the previous performances. To that point, you are of course right when you say, it’s not his fault the FO over paid for him. Looking at that objectively, it still was a smart move by the FO considering the options they had.

As a role player, I’d like to see more consistency, but overall I agree, he’s doing his job.

Money wise, if they were to amnesty him this season, they saved tons of money. Also, by not getting a guy like Dorrell Wright, James Jones, Ryan Gomes, Rasual Butler, Spurs likely would not be chasing Leonard. So in a fate type of way, the RJ moved made it possible to want to chase a youngin like Leonard.

The other one is George Hill. He was drafted right after the Batum pick, who the Spurs wanted….

He is no longer a machine gun; he is a sniper rifle.

Aha! Nice :)

Who at times ends up shooting himself on the foot. :P

If you want 3s from the corner …. RJ would do it for 9 millions
His 3pt% of .443 is good for 19th but also is 4 in 3pt made with 58

It is what it is.
RJ’s still the best SF on roster, although Pop has opted to put Leonard or Green in this spot for D near end of games. His minutes should still absorb what the organization has paid for him.

FO has not a made a veiled approach to pursue other SF this past free agency with clear option to amnesty him. Things didn’t pan out but that option remains open and if better options lie in future, won’t doubt the FO will make its move.

I’m not so sure that he’s the best SF on the team and I’m beginning to think thats its possible that he could fall out of the rotation once Manu comes back. Much like how SJax took over for Steve Smith in Smith’s last year with the Spurs, Danny Green has the ability to do the same to RJ, in terms of taking his spot. There’s also Kawhi who could also start in RJs place once Manu returns, with either him or Green finishing most games.
Many people might not think this to be a possibility but I do, which is why I can’t give him and his nearly 10 mil credit for his current production.

Kawhi’s consistency is something that has slowed down his minutes. His shot will always be iffy until he’s had a full offseason with Chip. He’s had a few good games recently, but they’ve been up and down. Obviously, he’s a rookie with little camp or practice, but that’s where we are at. Nothing that can really done about that.

Now as for Green. He’s probably the most versatile wing, but he’s more of a 2, who can guard a 3, than a 3. Leonard, has some nice skills, but is still very raw. His offense can be really really off, and can really hurt the offense as more of his recent games have shown (why Pop reduced his minutes).

At least in this season, RJ’s still probably the Spurs best 3.

SJax? He could shoot. Danny and Kawhi can’t.

But I doubt there’s much Spurs would want to give up to get Jackson.

Now if you get past the fact that his salary is the 4th highest in the team

I cannot. I just don’t think the value for the money is there. I’d like to see, as part of your comparison, a $ amount associated with each percentage point in things like eFG%, TRB%, defensive rating (inverse for that figure, of course).

Still, good write up because I do think RJ catches more flak than he necessarily deserves, but I also do think he passes up a lot of open looks (which is hard to quantify) due to an apparent timidity. Oh, and the brief flashes of RJ2.0 and RJ3.0 make his regressions a bit more maddening.

Excellent write-up.

Running a couple more plays for him per game would work wonders, I think. The one time I saw him on a mismatched post-up (against Luke Ridnour) he was successful. When he gets the open look near the top of the key off the screen he’s been successful. He’s passing up some threes that he was hitting early in the year which is frustrating, but I think he needs a little more usage than the right-place right-time spot ups that are his de facto bread and butter. I don’t think it would take much more usage, to be honest, to get him more engaged and give him more opportunities to get a hot streak going.

Just for some relative comparisons. Usage percentage of other key players on the Spurs:

Blair: 20.9 (and they make a strong effort, at least at the beginning to give him the ball albeit, some not pretty 4-down plays).

Green: 17.8 (Mr. Manu-lite, with end of game last second baskets going to him)

Neal: 21.7 (and his D has been the worst of any non-big. Statistically the worst player on the team from my last check)

Anderson: 18.6 (although his time has been crazy up and down, he seems to be in groups that allow him to do something in the plays)

Yes!

So glad you decided on this topic. Great read.

Some additional stats on our beloved RJ2.0 or 0.0001

A very reliable catch and shoot guy – 3rd in Assisted FG made
Does not turn the ball over (of course he doesn’t dribble very often either) 6th fewest TOs
16th in 3PA per game

Does not touch the ball often enough – 129th out of 143 in usage rate
Is not active on defense enough – 127th out of 143 in defense plays per game
Does not get to the charity stripe – 135 out of 143 in FTA
Does not score with time on the floor 112th ppg

all stats are courteous of hoopdata.com

and are out of players 10+ games and 25+ minutes per game

Now THESE are some reasons to sink your teeth into.

bottom line is im sure glad we didn’t use that amnesty and get caron or howard or anybody else we were supposedly “chasing”

Battier would have been nice.

The only thing I ask from RJ is aggressiveness and energy, the 2 things he lacks the most.

Right now Green > RJ, thats why Pop is going with him to close games, even if he is having a poor game offensively and has make a few bad mistake during the game. Energy and aggressiveness are a constant with Green.

Well there are also games where Pop has went with Green/RJ. Leonard’s minutes have dropped off the most since.

This is a well written piece. That being said, I have to disagree in a lot of points.
We tend to criticize players for their play on the court, because they are the ones we see, they are the result of all the training and coaching decisions. You are right, most of the blame for the way Jefferson plays needs to go to the coaching staff, to Popovich. He is the one that molded RJ into what he is right now.
Still, Blame RJ or blame Popovich, I dont like the results. And I will tell you why. Because his contract DOES matter. He has a long contract, one that gives him lik 9mill a year….that reduces the other roster moves we can make. So if he doesnt play up to that contract, it is hurting us. If Danny Green was making 10million a year, I would criticize him too.
RJ is a good role player. No doubt about it. But I think that not only the fans, but the FO too expected a lot more from him. I have never seen the PATFO spend so much money on a role player like with RJ. I think they thought we were getting a 4th weel, a guy who could carry us on those regular season games were our big 3 were injured or just having an off night.
I understand that Pop demands from his wing players to stand up in the corner and shoot 3’s. But this is basketball, and we all know (including Pop) that sometimes you can go off the script and make a better play. Danny Green understands this. Gary neal understands this. Hell…..Manu spitted on Pop’s plans and did whatever he wanted when he was a rookie. I have the feeling that RJ has a very LOW BBIQ, so he doesnt understand that he can do a bit more than what his coach asks about him. Probably Popovich wont instruct his players to dive for a loose ball. Those are things you do on your own.
I would like to see RJ going off the script at least once or twice per game. You dont have to be Dejuan or Manu (who do it almost all the time).
About the Finley comparison…he was great the first season…after that he was just Matt Bonner in a SG/SF body. He was good when he was open and hitting his shots, and he was really awful the rest of the time. He was a total nonfactor in the 2007 finals, I think he averaged like 3 points per game and Pop limited his minutes because he sucked so bad. Jefferson is quickly becoming Michael Finley all over again, but at a much higher price. And even the zombie would fake a 3 here and there, and go baseline for the reverse dunk. Basketball is not science.

The contact isn’t a problem if he’s gone after this season. That’s why I don’t think it’s as big a deal because it doesn’t threaten the future.

By re-negotiating his contract from a horrid one year luxury cap killer into a differed payment each season, it’s saving the team money. If he’s amnestied this offseason, the Spurs saved a lot.

Now, before re-signing, Spurs did look at wings. Honestly, the only really good one worth taking was Dorell Wright. Gomes, Jones, R Butler were all not worth it that original season. And this past offseason, Hill (probably wouldn’t work in this short season) and Battier were the only two good ones from that bunch.

With RJ on the team, it forces the Spurs to look at 3s. In comes Leonard. Obviously, if fate would have it and Portland didn’t pick Batum right before Spurs, it likely would have been him at the 3. Obviously, then Leonard isn’t a Spur either.

In regards to Finley, he was good in his second year as well, when they actually won one for Fin.

His contract only matters to the FO. Once he steps on the court his production is what counts. And he is a pretty good floor-stretching role player. I agree with you that he doesn’t seem to have a high BBIQ or creativity off the dribble; that’s exactly why I don’t want him breaking plays.

I’ll repeat Chilai’s point, because I find it to be relevant. His contract matters to the fans too. Our flexibility in the offseason will be crippled in part because of his ridiculous contract-to-production ratio. Even if Duncan resigns for much less money, our options will be limited unless we amnesty him.

But we don’t know yet if they have or haven’t amnestied RJ. At the moment, its assumed he will be cut. Thus he’s not going to hamper “flexibility in the offseason”

As i said earlier, after Wright, there wasn’t much in the free agent wing class to pay. This past offseason as well, after Battier. Now this offseason is different, especially since Anderson and Green are both free agents.

At the moment, Spurs are in the best possible situation, financially that they could be in.

I didn’t express myself clearly. What I mean by "His contract only matters to the FO" is that it doesn’t change Pop’s game plan or the way his on court contributions should be judged. Pop is wise enough to not forcibly try to make RJ a bigger part of the offense if he thinks it won’t help the team, regardless of the millions he makes. 10 points per game on .443 without being a minus on D makes for a good role player. The fact that the FO overpaid for those contributions shouldn’t eclipse Jefferson’s solid play.

My point is….you can get a guy who shoots well from the corner and plays average defense for much less than 10mill a year. The nba is full of guys like him.
Besides….you are missing annother point of mine. Jefferson CAN do more withouth breaking plays or being a black hole. I think he takes Pop too seriously. Its like his brain doesnt allow him to do clever plays. Think about a guy like Green…he does what he is asked to do, but here and there he improvises or makes a more clever play than the one that Pop would usually like. A player’s job is to win games, and being part of a system is a good portion of it…but you can break the rules sometimes, you can do what the oposing defense doesnt expect. Each year we see Jefferson’s points and shots go down as the year goes by because teams slowly adapt to him. Right now his scouting report must read “NEVER EVER DRIBBLES AND RARELY FAKES, JUST COVER HIS 3 POINT SHOT”

My point is….you can get a guy who shoots well from the corner and plays average defense for much less than 10mill a year. The nba is full of guys like him.

I agree. The Spurs made a mistake by resigning RJ to do that. That’s on PATFO though, not on RJ. I’m convinced he will get amnestied next season and I won’t be sad to see him go. But I won’t chastised him for something he has no control over.

Its like his brain doesnt allow him to do clever plays

That might very well be it. He was never known for his intangibles. He was always known for his scoring. All I’m saying is that if you think about him as what he is instead of what you want him to be, he’s not that bad. In fact he’s good at doing what he is supposed to do and can do.

I agree. The Spurs made a mistake by resigning RJ to do that. That’s on PATFO though, not on RJ. I’m convinced he will get amnestied next season

Actually, if that is the case, then the Spurs did right by re-signing him. I’d bet money on this that they agreed (under the table) that he’d void his option and re-sign for longer job security.

And ownership, since holt was involved in the talks already knew that they were trying to add in this amnesty clause. The more I think about it, the more I see this shrewd move.

They avoid that huge luxury tax hit and by the time the team needs cleaner books, they amnesty him. Essentially it works out for everyone.

CIA pop all the way!!

They’ve always been good about forcing their finances to be relatively stable above all. Even in the Scola deal, they at least dumped Jackie Butler (probably their actual worse move, since it was their contract offer).

So yes, money before talent, even if it’s not usually noticeable. Except in the case of Scola, where he was actually talented and low balling (since his buy out was so damn expensive) him didn’t work out.

I will always bash a guy for not giving his 100% and using his abilities to his maximum. That’s how I feel about RJ. Look at all the offensive boards Kawhi gets…you are telling me RJ couldnt at least try to do a bit of something like that? Show some hustle? Just a liittle? The two times I have seen him chase down all the court to swat a shot lebron style just reinforces my point. He could do things like that more often if he wanted. He is the exact anti-manu.
And btw, I agree that most of the blame is on the PATFO. We have always avoided guys like Jefferson, unless they came at a bargain price (like Finley, Glenn Robinson, Damon stoudamaire, etc).

You can view the way Leonard does some things as RJ doing those things, but I think Leonard is special. He’s got a bigger wing span and better hands. That and he’s much much younger, but I think it’s more about Leonard’s specialness that Indy might regress (although Paul George makes having another big wing not as needed).

Yes, I think RJ could possibly do that, but I also think leonard is just that special. The signs are there.

I do think RJ hustles. I see it in games. I don’t think it’s as showy though. He’s not freakish like Green or Leonard. I’m not saying his hustle is enough, but I also think he’s trying. I feel like he’s called for fouls when he tries to be more aggressive. He’s just not “special” like the other guys.

I blame everyone involved, but the trade was a good trade. The move to save money was good, if that’s the goal. I don’t believe after Wright that there was anyone worth paying the full MLE to for a wing that year. This past season, only Battier was worth money. So I don’t feel RJ’s contract really changed much, in the way of youth talent.

This upcoming offseason is the big one. This is where the FO has to make certain choices that look at short term versus long term.

I think from a hustle stand point, RJ’s improved a lot every season he’s been with the Spurs. He won’t get the frequent steals or deflections that Leonard and Green do, but he’s a decent position defender. Also, Pop has him to defend the bigger guys like Iguodala and LeBron. In the Philly game, I thought he covered Iggy well, and was big in shutting him down in the 4th quarter. And as you said, RJ didn’t shoot or score much but he rebounded well.

I never liked the trade… and I’ve never been that high on the peanut. I actually cursed our FO. Oh well, let’s see what happens (got no choice)…

You what gets t me? The fact that he is so one dimensional. If it ain’t a 3, it’s nothing!! Look at Neal, he don’t have half the physical gifts that RJ has and he gets off the 3 pt line and takes it to the hole. Why can’t RJ? His BBIQ is piss poor!

He’s been making 2pt jump shots, if that’s what you are hoping for.

he rarely makes them. And I think trooper is talking about gettin the ball to the rack. Neal is a great example, he is a deadly shooter but when teams overplay his shot…he just fakes and lays it up.

Well, right now, he’s been slumping, so he’s missing everything. RJ that is. When RJ’s shot is actually back, he does make the 2 pt shots.

Neal is a better dribbler though. He’s not a PG, but has way better handles. He’s much safer at taking it to the hole. The only times when Neal is not doing well, it’s when he jumps to pass and gets picked. That’s the one move he does that kills me consistently.

But RJ could at least do the “Finley”, that is, faking the 3 and then going straight for the reverse dunk or lay in. If a freakin zombie can do it, RJ also can. He lived at the line in his NJ and Milwaukee years….im not telling him to go all Manu, just to attack the rim at least ONCE per game. Is that too much to ask? Even Bonner does it from time to time (with hilarious results)

Yes, he should do it more often. I don’t debate that. I do feel like there has to be something in the coaching that isn’t encouraging him to do that, whereas with Bonner, they are working on that. His drives seem to get better, in the case of Bonner. He’s done a good job of building up that skill set. If he can continue, it should help his 3pt shooting stability, against better defensive teams.

In no way, am I saying RJ is free from criticism. I think he’s slumping right now, and by taking only jump shots, it’s going to take a lot more work to get out of it.

In NJ, yes he got to the line more, but NJ’s system also was more friendly to his game with JKidd there. Right now though, his minutes have decreased during his struggles. So the coaching staff is reacting appropriately in his case.

I feel like Pop should throw him into more units with Manu and one more shooter like a Bonner so spacing is good.

I think he did that for the most part last year but the refs were out to target him with offensive fouls. That always resulted in his rhythm being messed up. He’s playing safe ball this season with less mistakes.

That’s exactly right.

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