Welcome to installment number three of The State of the Spurs. This week, I've got a few different things I want to talk about, and brevity will be my friend.
I've been mostly silent, lurking more since the Dallas game, because I wanted to see if anyone else would say what I wanted to say. Unfortunately, nobody wants to talk about Blair's otstanding defense on Dirk Nowitzki? Complete denial of the ball? Frustrating him to the point of nearly getting a tech? And doing it all while only getting one PF for the game?
Dirk shot over him once...and Dejuan played the shot well- close enough to contest, not too close to get a foul called on him.
Pop used Blair almost exclusively on Dirk. They subbed in and out at the same time. I was shocked and thought it would be a horrible idea- I was proven wrong. Blair followed this up with a better than usual defensive performance against Marreese Speights, giving up only three long jumpers in 15 minutes of action. Admittedly, I only caught the second half of the Houston game, but he played excellent ball denial defense on Luis Scola throughout his time in the third quarter. He finished the game with as many steals as Scola had points. I'm not going to say "he's turned a corner" or even predict that he will, but I am going to give him credit (which is due) for stepping up his game against two really good scorers that both usually kill the Spurs.
Another Spur that deserves credit? Kawhi Leonard. During the Dallas game, I noticed on several of his offensive rebounds that the reason he was open was because Dallas was basically double teaming Blair when he tried to crash the offensive glass. While I was impressed with Kawhi's ability to take advantage of this situation, I thought Blair was going to deserve a little bit more credit. Then the Memphis game happened, and Kawhi showed that he's got a nose for the ball and the athletic ability to get it. While Kawhi and the other guards who occasionally go for putbacks do prosper from having Blair in the game, Kawhi is just as effective when he's going for the board by himself. I am very, very impressed with our rookie. So impressed, that I came up with an analogy for him (although the same applies to Danny Green). Their motors are like those "smart" motors in hybrids, that switch from battery power to gas power so you rarely have to fill the tank up or recharge the battery. They just play hard until they look like they are going to pass out. Except those hybrid motors aren't powerful enough for the analogy. If you had a V12 with a HEMI that was a hybrid, that was how I would describe Kawhi's play during the Memphis game. That was absolutely outstanding.
Next theme: value. I'll be very brief with this. Kevin Martin consistently dominates the Spurs. He's an excellent shooter and might be the best in the league at running off screens. Know who else is pretty good at that? Gary Neal. They are basically the same type of players, although obviously Martin is more talented. Gary Neal makes approximately 800,000 a year. Kevin Martin makes 12 million. Is he that much more talented than Neal? I'd argue not at all. So, factoring in cost, which would you rather have on the Spurs? I'll take Gary every time. In all likelihood, Gary will make significantly more in his next contract- probably somewhere in the ball park of the four million a year Matt Bonner makes now. But even then, we get a lot more bang for our buck with him over a "star" like Kevin Martin.
Speaking of the Red Rocket, he has officially begun playing this season. We are a much, much better team when he is making his shots. And yes, we are a much, much worse team when he's not. But he's going to make at least 40%, so as long as he is shooting he needs to be on the floor, making or missing- because eventually they are going to start going in.
1 recs | 35 comments
Well, at the moment Dirk Nowitzki is half a blair with his injuries. Not to say Blair didn’t do a nice job but Dirk at his best would kill our beloved Blair, unless he mistook one of Dirk’s foot for a pancake and slowed him down.
Kevin Martin. On the right team (like ours), he would be much more deadlier. Considering we have Neal and have no chance at Martin the obvious choice would be to chose Neal.
Outkastprince - February 2, 2012
I’m not sure Matin would be all that more deadly on our team. In fact, he’d probably see a decline in his numbers. Much like RJ on the Bucks, Martin is the number 1 scoring threat on a weak offensive team. He’d likely be option 3 at best on our team.
Big50 - February 2, 2012
Houston is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.
Chilai - February 2, 2012
If by one of the best, you mean top 15, then I agree. They are 9th in offensive efficiency, 13th in FG% and 18th in 3FG%. They are also 28th in free-throw attempts. Without Kevin Martin’s 21 ppg they’d be much lower than their 5th rating in points per game.
Outside of Martin there are only two players who average more than 10 points per game and they both average less than 15. It may have been an over statement on my part to say they are “weak” offensively, but they certainly aren’t elite. Stats from here.
Big50 - February 2, 2012
But they have a bunch of guys who can score, something which the scoring average don’t reflect. Courtney Lee, who i wanted as a Spur (until the recent surge in wings that the Spurs have), is one of those guys. Good defender, athletic and a shooter.
They are young, so depending on where they play, they might not show up, but they do have a lot of offensive talent. If they find the right matchup, like the Spurs, they do well.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
Probably true. My whole point is they lean on Martin for a lot of points. He would be a good scorer wherever he played, including SA (as SFS said). That said, he wouldn’t be the top option here as he is in Houston.
Big50 - February 2, 2012
Kevin Martin is this generation’s Ray Allen. Elite shooter, capable ball handler, average at best defender. Seattle and Milwaukee both tried to make him a franchise guy, and neither ever had much success (although Seattle came closer than Houston will with Martin)
SpursfanSteve - February 2, 2012
He’s more like a poor man’s Ray Allen then. That said, Allen was not a franchise player, but most aren’t. He’s a legit #2 guy though. Martin a weak #2, but a strong #3.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
He is comparable to Allen, but Ray in my opinion is/was a better shooter. When Martin ages, I dont think he’ll have the same impact as Ray Allen.
ALso, Ray was a sieve defensively when he was younger, but Martin…..my god he is baaaaad, he doesnt even seem to try.
Chilai - February 2, 2012
Ray Allen is more athletic, but he’s also bulkier. That helped give him some advantages when he was younger. Also, Allen could slam it in his first few years. Martin can, but he looks to take the layups more often than not.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
Didn’t get to see the Dallas game except for the final play (ugh).
Kawhi won the Memphis game for us. Others contributed, and the Grizz weren’t at their best, but Kawhi defensively dominated Rudy Gay both mentally and physically. If I recall correctly our rookie put up 12 points, a very solid contribution on this team, to Rudy Gay’s one measly, wimpy free throw. 23 games into the season and shutting down offensive talents like that is something to celebrate. Obviously the consistency isn’t there yet (thank you, Kevin Martin) but that will come. He contained LeBron for an entire half in the game that never happened, as well. With some seasoning and Poppage this guy is going to be the real deal on defense.
SleepCrack - February 2, 2012 via mobile
It’s going to be interesting to see what he does against Durant.
TrooperJoe73 - February 2, 2012
Yup. That’s a tall order.
SleepCrack - February 2, 2012 via mobile
Stick his hands up a little bit more?
grego21 - February 2, 2012
This time around.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
TWSS
the little o - February 2, 2012
TWSS
the little o - February 2, 2012
Not discounting Blair’s performance, but I do know that was Dirk’s first game back from injury. I sure hope it’s the start of a trend for DaBeast, but I’m not fully convinced.
I completely agree that Neal is a great value. Even if he’s not the player Kevin Martin is, he’s not expected to be or even asked to be. It’s a great fit.
Big50 - February 2, 2012
There is a BIG BIG BIG difference between Martin and Neal: the former can get to the line at will, he is one of the NBA leaders at free throw atempts each season. Neal is only a shooter.
So no, they are nothing alike. In Neal’s defense….well he is a better defender than Kevin Martin (who may be the worst starter in that regard at the SG position)
Chilai - February 2, 2012
My primary point in the comparison is that they are both role players- neither can do much of anything but score. Martin and Neal can both dribble well enough to create offense for themselves (like you said, Martin is much better at this) but neither are anything other than role players. Kevin Martin for 12 million a year is a drastic overpayment for a one-way player. It’s probably the only bad contract Houston has had on it’s books since Morey took over. Role players (particularly guards) are never worth more than around 5 million a year.
SpursfanSteve - February 2, 2012
I think Martin is a more than a than a role player. He’s not an all star but he’s a really good player, a great scorer, and he’s the main option of their team.
RJ is a role player, he’s only there to shoot the open shot and defend, and he has a $40M deal.
I agree with you that role players should be paid no more that 5 M.
spursfan87 - February 2, 2012
Also I dont think that Martin is worth $12M, probably $6-8M.
spursfan87 - February 2, 2012
He’s also a much better defender than Martin. Is he a good enough defender to justify the 9-10 million a year (4-5million more than what we say role players are worth)? Eh…I’d say occasionally but certainly not consistantly.
SpursfanSteve - February 2, 2012
Martin is an elite one-way player. The guy can put up 20 efficient points per game easily being the fist option which involves more shots but also a lot more defensive attention from the other team. He would be a solid second option for a team with a dominant big man or a great third option for a balanced team. Gary Neal is a shooter off the bench. Considering value and what the Spurs need, I’d take Neal. But Martin is a much, much better player than Neal.
Edg5 - February 2, 2012
I agree. The way he draws easy points on fouls, is just amazing. An added benefit, is it puts the Rockets in the bonus quickly.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
Martin is not a role player. He’s just not a number 1 guy. He’s like a weak 2nd and 3rd option type of guy. He’s be awesome, in the days when Duncan was more of a post player, for instance. That said, he doesn’t fit with the team since Spurs biggest issues now are defense. And he’s paid more.
However, once Neal’s pay grade goes up, his value starts to diminish a little bit. His D is better than Martin’s but that isn’t saying much.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
Martin is a great great offensive player, one of the best in the whole NBA. No matter where you put him, he will score between 20 or 30 points in a VERY efficient manner. He hits a bunch of 3’s and free throws and he doesnt turn the ball over. He is one of the best offensive players in the NBA. I would rather have him than Carmelo (who scores a little more but needs to use like 3X times the possesions that Martin uses).
If you value him compared to other NBA players, he is properly paid at 12mill a year.
Now I think that HE IS OVERPAID, but just like 90% of the NBA players.
Chilai - February 2, 2012
He’d definitely fit on the Spurs due to his shooting prowess. It’s just the trade off might hurt.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
In Dirk’s defense, he’s having a pretty bad year and has been banged up. So, props to Blair for making it more physical, but a good amount of that was just Dirk not being Dirk. He missed a lot of easy shots against Tiago as well, that he’d likely rain over him in other games.
Posted this in the Quick Cap, but it is worth noticing. As of last nights game,
http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22011&split=22&team=Spurs
Last 10 games +/-
73 Bonner – King of the +/-
+48 Splitter – Well, he’s just beautfiul..
46 James Anderson – This suprised me, but this makes sense since he was part of the Dallas comeback and Houston one.
+44 Green – well this one seems to be indicating right
+26 Neal – he’s been picking it up recently as he gets his legs, and Pop finds other guys to cover for his D
+5 Parker – His score is hurt the most by all the groups he plays with.
= Eeek… -20 RJ – yep, he’s dropped off with some of those recent games where the starting 5 was poo -24 Duncan – makes sense with some of the games where he just didn’t have it ==
Holy crap
-52 Leonard – the life of a rookie, especially in a super quick season. His lack of consistent shot hurts a bit as well.
-58 Blair – this is not good.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
Something that comes up from time to time is how NBA rookies are often said to “hit the wall”. They go from playing 30 or so games in college to 82 games in the pros. While there isn’t 82 games this season, the 66 games that there will be are in an even more compressed schedule. The vets that are more used to an 82 game schedule have to adjust to all of the additional games in a short period. Leonard had a longer than normal off-season with no summer league and a short training camp. I’d think that perhaps he might need his minutes watched nearly as much as Tim does while his body adjusts to life in the NBA.
Alamo - February 2, 2012
Well, all guys, I’ve noticed have hit walls. Neal had a period where he was gassed. When Joseph started to see time, Neal didn’t play as much and started to look better. RJ seems to be another case. Before his slump, he was playing big minutes. Now that they’ve been reduced, his shots are falling at a decent rate once again, although not the blistering rate he started off with.
For Leonard, it is ultra magnified.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
FWIW, he had no chance of sustaining his rate from early this year. I doubt that even Detlef Schrempf had a streak that hot.
J.R. Wilco - February 3, 2012
Agreed. Or Ray Allen who was 60%+ from 3pt line.
grego21 - February 3, 2012
While it has some thing to do with his body adjusting to the grueling NBA schedule, I think it also has to do with the NBA adjusting to him. He’s in scouting reports now, and coaches are telling their players how to make him the least effective (let him shoot). So it’s a combo of both imo.
the little o - February 2, 2012
Great point. This is what happened to Green as well.
grego21 - February 2, 2012
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