It boils down to this: last year's Spurs did not have an answer for the Grizzlies when playing with a less-than-fully-healthy Manu Ginobili. The overall size of Memphis disrupted everything the Spurs offense had done well all season long. It wasn't just that they were big in the frontcourt with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol pushing around Duncan, McDyess, Splitter, and Blair; it was also their length on the wings that enabled them to handle the offensive wrinkles that Pop and the coaching staff (PATCS? maybe not) threw at them, without having to change their preferred lineups. I had a discussion with SpursfanSteve (before the season opener and, of course, Manu's injury) and we talked about the end of last season, how it could be evaluated, what should be done for this season, and some possible tweaks for the lineup. It's pretty impressive when you see how many things SfS really hit right on the head, from the things we've seen over the first nine game.
[Editor's Note: For those of you who are wondering where the recap of last night's Thunder game is, please bear with us while we work through some technical difficulties. -JRW]
J.R. Wilco: so, what do you think the Spurs should do right now?
SpursfanSteve: One of two things: either start Tony, Anderson, Leonard, Blair, and Duncan, bring Neal, Manu, Jefferson, Bonner and Splitter off the bench, or start the same five, but waive RJ and bring Green/Butler off the bench in his place. Either way, I think we need Green on our roster.
jrw: Well, before discussing your idea, since it has no chance of actually being used - you think Green will make the team?
sfs: I think he should. He's a good defender, aggressive on both ends, rebounds well for his size, and is not afraid of taking the 3 if he's open.
jrw: Wow - intriguing. so you don't think the team needs a true backup poing?
sfs: Neal and Manu have been sufficient. I don't think when it comes to ballhandling we'll miss Hill that much. Intangibles like Green has, is where we will miss Hill.
jrw: Ok, so walk me through what you think your new proposed starting five would be capable of.
sfs: Well, it's roughly the same 5 we saw tear through the league last year, with Kawhi instead of RJ, which, considering he's new, I wouldn't expect that to be an immediate upgrade production wise (at least in the starting 5).
jrw: The same five, with and Anderson starting at SG?
sfs: Didn't he start some at the very beginning last year right before he got hurt? I may be wrong.
me: I don't believe he ever started, but even if he did, he certainly wasn't part of "the starting 5 that tore through the league." =]
sfs: Touché. Regardless, I think that lineup optimizes all 5's strengths and stays relatively solid defensively
jrw: I love the idea. I really do. I just am not optimistic about it's chances of seeing a single glimpse of reality. Which leads me to another question - do you really feel like the Spurs tore through the league last year?
sfs: Only until the last 2 weeks of the season
jrw: Loooking at the standings, I'd agree with you, but I think they got VERY lucky. Without even trying, I can think of 4 bounces of the ball that would have swung 4 games:
More of this soon, Manu, if you please.
via sinbapointforward
sfs: Can't we say the same thing about the Memphis series?
jrw: Oh, you could say the same plenty of series, but when a team is really dominant, sure, they have close games, but they're regularly blowing teams out and enforcing their will. I feel like after the first 20 games or so, while the Spurs played very good ball, benefited from a ton of luck and if last season was played 10 times I think last year's record is the best of them all.
sfs: I'm...not sure. I tend to think we swung from one extreme to the other, at the best and worst times possible
We need consistency, and we lived and died by our bench last year. I think the only way to keep the bench from dropping off too much in pressure situations is to put Manu back there.
jrw: I'm not opposed to putting Manu back, but I'm trying to think about whether I agree that we lived and died by our bench. So, you're saying that, for the most part our starters treaded water, and then our bench pulled ahead while going against the other 2nd unit?
sfs: I think our bench tended to either build on what the starters did, or blew it for us. I can't think of a game where they played well and we lost. I can think of games where the starters played well, the bench didn't, and we lost.
jrw: So you're saying that last year: bench plays good = victory, starters play good = game still in doubt depending on the play of the bench.
sfs: As a general trend, yes.
jrw: Very interesting observation, and it's not one that I can disagree with. Ok, switching gears, what's the result of the Memphis series if: a) Manu doesn't play game 82 and begins the playoffs in perfect health, or b) Manu's still the same as he was, but RJ hits his 3 at the end of Game 1, and the Spurs win.
sfs: Manu healthy entire time, we win in 5. If he's out of the 1st game, but RJ hit's the 3, it's a 7 game series, result is a toss up.
jrw: So you don't buy the theory that MEM played over their heads during the series b/c their confidence was buoyed by taking G1 on the road?
sfs: I buy into it a little bit, but not enough that I'd say we'd win for sure without Manu at 100%.
Anyway, I think having Manu, Tony, and Tim in the starting lineup just doesn't maximize what we can get from all 3 of them. And since RJ plays best with Manu, it makes sense to send both back to the bench and hopefully accelerate the learning curve for &erson and Leonard.
sfs: Blair should start, IMO, because he's our best PnR big and because Duncan can best cover his weaknesses
Also, we've always had one player that plays outside of the system, plays as much on instinct as he does what Pop wants him to do. Manu has always been that guy. But Blair needs to be. His instincts are his strengths, he's so good at finding space around the basket. And also, you know, rebounding.
jrw: Yeah, he's good at that.
Well, those are all of my questions. Thanks for granting me this time for my interview. I'll have the piece posted so that your followers can discuss what they think about your theories. =]
sfs: Yes, absolutely. And you can interview me anytime.
0 recs | 44 comments
I like these kinds of posts. I was thinking the other day, when will we get another SiMA and JRW podcast? I love those.
As a rule I just don’t like what ifs because it’s sort of like sour grapes. I mean obviously Manu would have made a difference but no one knows for certain if we would have won that series with him the entire time. He was never going to stop their bigs and that’s what really killed us. If I had to point to one thing for that series, it was a lack on size in the front court that made it so we couldn’t stop Memphis at all. Splitter should have played more. The next biggest thing that stuck out to me was that Tony should have played up to his freaking salary instead of being played to a stand still by MCJR.
Also this is really late, the posting of this conversation, but I like it because I too was on the amnesty RJ train and look how wrong we were. SFS was ahead of the curve with Danny Green though, especially pin pointing the hustle and intangible things that he would be able to bring in the same way Georgie did. Great stuff dudes.
Manuwar - January 9, 2012
Things got really busy before the season and I just held off on this one. But with today’s lull, and Green’s coming out party in the Denver game, I felt that everyone should know how awesome SfS is, since he’d never tell you himself.
J.R. Wilco - January 9, 2012
Are you kidding? I’m awesome
SpursfanSteve - January 9, 2012
Now that’s true, you DO have the swagger of a … you know I don’t think I can quote much of that and feel comfortable with it.
But it IS awesome — just like you.
J.R. Wilco - January 9, 2012
“an ego the size of Tim Duncan” is what I figured you’d have gone with. :)
SpursfanSteve - January 9, 2012
Well, it IS funny that the most recognizably AWESOME basketball player with an ego that is NOT of sufficient size to be appropriate to reference in a rap song happens to be the greatest power forward of all time and the linchpin of SA’s 4 chips, but I hadn’t gotten to that part of the song by the time I replied! =]
J.R. Wilco - January 9, 2012
And the podcasts will be on hiatus until I can find running mates to replace SiMA — he’s too busy to do them regularly, now that there’s a kiddo in the casa.
J.R. Wilco - January 9, 2012
Oh my gosh you have 5 kiddos in the casa. He is such a wimp!
Manuwar - January 9, 2012
In SiMA’s defense, he IS a newbie.
J.R. Wilco - January 9, 2012
I wonder if he gets to keep his man cave or if the wifey turns it into a scrapbooking room so to document all the precious moments of that new baby.
Manuwar - January 10, 2012
To tell you the truth, I"m not sure he’s actually living in the house anymore. I think his bed is in the garage.
J.R. Wilco - January 11, 2012
Poor chap, he’s probably missed out on all the Tebow mania! Living under a rock can’t be nearly as isolate as living in SiMA’s garage.
Manuwar - January 11, 2012
“Poor chap” indeed.
J.R. Wilco - January 11, 2012
Man, I really nailed the whole “Danny Green is a beast” thing, didn’t I? :)
Given what we’ve seen, while having Manu come off the bench would still be acceptable, I’m not sure he’s needed the way TJ usually plays. Last night he seemed to have greasy fingers, but for the most part Ford has played well above expectations- and if you remember the piece I wrote when he signed, I had some pretty high expectations.
I do think, though, that my point regarding our big three no longer being complementary stands. Parker especially, but also Manu, need to have two consistent high quality three point shooters on the floor with them at all times- shooters of the catch and shoot variety. RJ, Bonner, Green, and Anderson are all pretty good shooters. Tony would work best flanked with any combination of the above. Manu, and also Kawhi, do much better shooting off the dribble (from what I’ve noticed).
Duncan isn’t scoring out of the post anymore- he’s getting almost all his points from the top of the key. And as much as it pains me to criticize him, his shot selection out of the low post has been awful. He’s getting forced to take long, fade-away baseline hook shots, and I think I’ve seen maybe one go in all year. Blair, like it or not, is our most consistent post threat on offense at this point. He throws up some crazy looking shot once or twice every game, but he’s only in year three and hasn’t been featured as a post threat consistently. That being said, his power move is incredibly efficient. If he develops another move or two (one that is in development is his baby hook) he’ll be as effective offensively, in spite of his size, as most of the other bigs in the league.
Running a pick and roll offense, with Blair as the screener and Duncan floating to the high post/top of the key area, are probably our most productive offensive sets.
I’ve seen some improvement in Splitter’s post game as the season has progressed, but I think Blair will likely always be a better option on offense. Both of them playing at a high level, though, are vital to our success.
SpursfanSteve - January 9, 2012
I love your thoughts on Blair and totally agree. He’s learned to use his body mass and quickness to his advantage, and his ability to go under the rim and use the backboard makes me smile.
CapHill - January 9, 2012
His ability to go under the rim makes him smile too!
J.R. Wilco - January 9, 2012
Just like many hold out on RJ because of consistency, I do the same on Blair. For the most part, he’s pulling through, but he falls into bad habits here and there. I hope the coaching staff is really focusing on these.
grego21 - January 9, 2012
From the way they’re working with him in the pre-game practices, I feel certain that they are.
J.R. Wilco - January 9, 2012
I feel like they are focusing too much on offense then because I feel like with his footwork and IQ (shown by his passing abilities) he could be a smarter defender. This is why i facepalm myself when I see him on defense at times… or to steal one from Blair’s tweets… SMH
grego21 - January 9, 2012
“LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!” — DeJuan Blair. (I had to quit following him. His tweets were driving me nuts.)
Fred Silva - January 9, 2012
Yeah, I gave up halfway into last season.
grego21 - January 9, 2012
Me too.
J.R. Wilco - January 11, 2012
His defense hasn’t come along as quick as his offense, but it is better this season. He’s learning to use his lower center of gravity to hold his position on the low block, plus he’s reaching less trying to steal the ball.
CapHill - January 10, 2012
I agree with that assessment. He’s only had a few games where he got in big foul trouble, and one of those was the very first game. So props to that.
He still need to block out. I hope those two words are what he thinks about before he goes to sleep. With his body, he can help on the D-boards when he’s blocking out, especially when the wings are pretty good at grabbing boards.
grego21 - January 10, 2012
The image that immediately popped into my head is one of Pop giving each player an audio file to listen to while sleeping. In DeJuan’s case, it would be a repeating “DeJuan, if you box out the opposing team each and every possession, Pop will take you to Whataburger in the postseason”. Although knowing Pop, he probably has already incorporated some CIA mind control techniques.
CapHill - January 10, 2012
I don’t know, I think Pop went crazy with rewarding him on the Whataburgers last year…. :O
grego21 - January 10, 2012
That whole sleep indoctrination thing is too “Brave New World” for Pop. I’ve always thought of him as more of a straightforward, “1984” kind of guy.
Edg5 - January 10, 2012
Relevant
grego21 - January 10, 2012
The mental image I have is of Pop having slipped into Blair’s house before he returned from an evening out, and as he climbs into bed to turn out the light, he rolls over and sees Pop standing there above his bed, smiling and saying, “Blooooooooock ooooooooout, DeJuan. Blooooooooock oooooooooout.”
And Blair doesn’t even flinch, he just closes his eyes, smiles the smile of a child secure in the knowledge that his parents are protecting him, and goes to sleep.
J.R. Wilco - January 11, 2012
Splitter is a great player who DOMINATED Europe. I honestly feel that he has a way to go, but he can be a very good Center. [Just a quick head’s up: Erzem Lorbeck, that we picked up with KL, is having a monstrous year with Barcelona]
The biggest mystery so far has been Tony.
He is playing like 2-3 levels worse than last year. Him dishing 7-8 assists per game is just because he has struggled to get to the rim so far. We can’t continue to live on the perimeter, that just wont work long-term and Tony is the guy that is supposed to get into the paint and draw fouls or score. it’s almost like he lost a step, so this maybe the time to alarm you guys that without his quickness, [panic]TONY PARKER IS USELESS.[\panic]
ironm8 - January 9, 2012
I tend to agree with your point about Tony- I’m hoping it’s just a conditioning issue. There seems to be a time or two every game (it happened at least once last night against Westbrook) that Tony blew by everyone and got to the hole. He missed the layup, but it was one of the few times he’s taken it to the rim against a defense that was almost-but-not-quite set.
I’ve also noticed that we seem to be in transition slightly less this year. A big part of Tony’s game was pushing the temp so he’d only have to beat one or two defenders. If we’re slowing the pace down, he’s going to struggle more because he’s got to do it against a fully set and prepared defense.
SpursfanSteve - January 9, 2012
Well, I doubt its conditioning. He played with France[He was terrific i might add] and then he played with ASVEL, so he came back in a good shape.
So it’s either that he is already washed up or that we’re seeing a decline after 12 years of burning fellow point guards.
I am led to believe that the second option is the correct one, and it smells bad.[i sincerely hope i am wrong]
ironm8 - January 9, 2012
I don’t think he’s washed up. I think he still isn’t in full game shape. Yes, he played during the summer, but he might have got lazy after playing. Or, the summer play is getting to him.
The condensed schedule probably isn’t the best for him either if he’s played a lot of the year. I can’t be worried yet. Hopefully as TJ gets the offense more, we’ll see a change.
grego21 - January 9, 2012
Man, Lorbek would have been a Spurs probably if not for the strike. Dang it! He certainly would have received time considering the lack of depth and Duncan needing to sit some games.
grego21 - January 9, 2012
I felt the same way about Lorbek througout the summer, but as more and more reports came in about his lack of defense, I’m starting to wonder whether he’d have made this team.
Prolly, what he would have made, is a lot of £ers angry at PATFO for not signing him.
J.R. Wilco - January 16, 2012
Guess I never mentioned this before, but this comment is chock full of excellent analysis.
Great job, SfS.
J.R. Wilco - January 16, 2012
That Manu shot always amazes me. Mbah a Moute defended him perfectly, but it wasn’t enough.
Tim C. - January 9, 2012
Against Manu, almost nobody is enough to stop him. Some guys are too physically gifted. Manu’s BBIQ and intuitiveness is well above the average All-Star.
TrooperJoe73 - January 9, 2012
And he takes paths to the basket, angles through the defense that are like no one else, which makes them VERY hard to anticipate.
J.R. Wilco - January 16, 2012
Solid Q&A. Good reading.
TrooperJoe73 - January 9, 2012
I liked this. I tend to side more with Dale in that if the Spurs take Game 1, it’s a completely different series. Memphis was a team that had never really had success in the playoffs. They played inspired, confident ball and I think it was greatly due to them realizing with the win in Game 1, that they had a chance. If we win that game, their momentum wouldhave been stopped before it had a chance to get going.
Fred Silva - January 9, 2012
After Manu got hurt last year, Pop thought the only way to win was to revert back to 4 Down with Tim and it failed miserably. I am still horse from yelling for motion ball. Tim no longer draws the other top level mid’s to him like he did before and because him makes 25% of the total payroll we expect the past because he looks good on the outside. Pop needs to have a real heart to heart with Tim about his strengths and weaknesses.Pop needs to do some more tweaking and he will as soon as he finds the best combos with which to work.
indiancharlie - January 9, 2012
Well, the problem last year was there was no TJ Ford. Green didn’t get enough time, although should. Pop should have tried to work Anderson back. Hill wasn’t a PG, and Pop tried to get the most out of his shooters by going 4-down. It makes sense.
Pop tried to go with something that was familiar because it seemed like “less of a risk” even though it kept them from making use of possible weapons.
This season is what should have happened last season, even in the last forth of the season. I think he got too caught up in the winning/standings, even though Lakers were falling off.
grego21 - January 9, 2012
Nice write up. It feels like it was talked about just a week ago. Good calls by Steve, especially on Green. I’ve been high on him a lot too. Super call there.
Game 1 definitely would have helped bolster the confidence of some of the players. I’m not sure if it would guarantee that they win. All of the Grizz players were solid, while the Spurs were struggling going into the post season a litle bit.
Everyone wants to call out RJ, but he was aggressive until the last 3 games. His shot fell off a little bit though. It definitely isn’t as strong as it is this year. But then this makes sense. He re-built his shot and now has had proper mechanics for over a year.
I feel like this past post season all but guaranteed that they’d try and move Hill as lovable as he is for all he has done and how good a person he is for the Spurs. Game 1 was the chance for the guards to step up, and they didn’t do that much, especially Indy George. Parker passed well, but didn’t score as much as he needed to while Conley was just awesome. Oh and Neal. If not for that shot, he was horrible. Everyone seems to forget that he was nearly useless on the floor. Pop used him wrong at the 3, but then Hill at the 3 isn’t that useful either against tall 3s. And his shot was just horrid.
Pop reacted too slow with Splitter. He showed effectiveness, although Memphis eventually caught on. Although Pop could have balanced out Dice better with Splitter and would have maybe made it more effective.
Thinking out loud so to speak…
grego21 - January 9, 2012
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